July 31, 2007
Analysts Ponder iPhone Sales Forecasts
Apple’s announcement last week that it sold 270,000 iPhones in the product’s first 30 hours of availability popped the bubble of several excessively exuberant analyst reports. The (WSJ) Numbers Guy explains why.
"Many publications (including the Journal) reported that WSJ was disappointed because analysts had expected sales as high as 700,000.
But did Apple miss analysts’ forecasts, or did the forecasts miss reality?
Analysts I spoke to after Apple released the official numbers offered several explanations for why their numbers were so far off the mark. Among them: flawed in-store checks using small samples; one-upmanship resulting from the iPhone hype; and an emotional reaction from Wall Streeters to the iPhone.
“People get emotionally involved in the product and start thinking it’s going to be a bigger number than it actually is,” said Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray."
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